There are many factors that go into this determination: the nature of the industry, established players, competitive solutions, pricing models, market influences, nature of the disruption, and the list goes on. How do you understand when the market is ready for your product or service?

“In any event, be conservative. Take the opinion of your most skeptical employee, advisor or investor.” 

Try asking the following people:

• Ask Someone with No Horse in the Race. Find someone who doesn’t have interest in you or your company and ask them about your product or service. You are more likely to get an unbiased opinion, especially if they know nothing about your market and don’t have a vested interest in you succeeding or failing.
• Ask Your Investors. Investors have seen a lot and may have a more sophisticated or nuanced frame of reference against which to measure your offering. For example, they may be able to compare other companies they have invested in and how long it took to get to market.
• Ask Other Entrepreneurs. It might be an entrepreneur you know, or one whose work you respect. You will likely get a candid assessment from other entrepreneurs that don’t have the emotional attachment that you do.
• Ask Industry Experts. While it is beneficial to get views from unbiased and uninvolved people, they often lack the knowledge of your specific industry. People in your industry understand the normal selling process and when and how products are brought to market.

In addition to gathering this feedback, you must understand the impact that your financial resources can have on timing. While new solutions always take time to come to market, this can be accelerated if you have significant financial resources. Blockbuster aggressively went across America and bought out all the video rental stores. If they had not had the capital to do so, it would have taken many more years for that industry to evolve.

In any event, be conservative. Take the opinion of your most skeptical employee, advisor or investor. It is better to set the expectation that your film will take two years to complete and deliver it early, than to suggest it will be finished in eighteen months and have it take a full two years. This effort will help you set appropriate expectations for vendors, investors, your team, and you. It will also strengthen their trust and support of both you and your business.