--- url: 'https://lonelyentrepreneur.com/founder-the-size-you-started/' title: 'Twenty-Six Years In, Firms That Started With One to Four Employees Still Close More Than Twice as Often' author: name: Samantha Lankford url: 'https://lonelyentrepreneur.com/author/sam/' date: '2026-10-17T10:30:00-04:00' modified: '2026-10-17T10:30:00-04:00' type: post summary: 'Census data on firms by the size they started at: those that opened with one to four employees close more often at every age, even 26 years in.' categories: - Blog Post image: 'https://lonelyentrepreneur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/founder-the-size-you-started-hero.webp' published: true --- # Twenty-Six Years In, Firms That Started With One to Four Employees Still Close More Than Twice as Often ![The Lonely Entrepreneur](https://lonelyentrepreneur.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/TLE_Logo_mobile-490W-26-26.png)Founder Data Report ![Twenty-Six Years In, Firms That Started With One to Four Employees Still Close More Than Twice as Often](https://lonelyentrepreneur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/founder-the-size-you-started-hero.webp) Founder Data Report # Twenty-Six Years In, Firms That Started With One to Four Employees Still Close More Than Twice as Often By Michael Dermer • Updated October 17, 2026 You can’t afford to risk your business without a Sidekick at your side. [Book a Call →](https://lp.lonelyentrepreneur.com/meetings/victoria-sherman/sidekick-call) Census business data, 2010 to 2023: the number of people a company starts with stays attached to its odds of closing for decades. Quick Answer In the Census Bureau’s Business Dynamics Statistics, firms that are **26 years or older** and **started with one to four employees** closed at a rate of **9.7%** in 2023. Firms the same age that started with five to nine employees closed at 4.1%. Firms that started with one to four close more often than those that started with five to nine at **every age**, in every year from 2010 to 2023. From age 11 on the two groups never overlap: across those age bands and years, 6.7% was the lowest rate for the smaller starters and 4.5% the highest for the larger ones. The 30-second version - 26+ years old, 2023: 9.7% of firms that started with 1–4 employees closed, against 4.1% of those that started with 5–9. - The smaller starters close more often at every age from one year to 26+, in every year from 2010 to 2023. - From age 1 to 26+, the closure rate fell 59% for firms that started with 1–4 and 69% for those that started with 5–9. The smaller fall was the 1–4 group’s in every year. - For the 1–4 starters, the rate stops falling after about 11 years: from 2015 to 2023 the bands from 11–15 to 26+ sat within 1.2 points of each other each year. - Of the firms operating in 2023 that Census can trace to their first year, 59.3% started with 1–4 employees. ## The size a firm started at Most closure statistics sort businesses by how old they are or how big they are now. The Business Dynamics Statistics also publish a third cut: how many employees a firm had in its **first year**. A firm that opened with three people and grew to forty stays in the one-to-four group for life. A closure here means every location the firm ran stopped having employees, and the rate is the share of firms that closed in the year to March. Sorted that way, the youngest firms show what everyone expects: at one year old, 23.4% of the firms that started with one to four employees closed in 2023, against 13.1% of those that started with five to nine. What nobody tells you is how long that gap lasts. The Data Share of firms that closed in 2023, by firm age and starting size Age 1 year Started with 1–423.4% Started with 5–913.1% Age 3 years Started with 1–414.1% Started with 5–97.5% Age 5 years Started with 1–412.0% Started with 5–96.4% Age 6–10 years Started with 1–410.8% Started with 5–95.3% Age 11–15 years Started with 1–49.6% Started with 5–94.5% Age 21–25 years Started with 1–49.4% Started with 5–94.0% Age 26+ years Started with 1–49.7% Started with 5–94.1% Firm deaths as a share of firms plus firm deaths, year to March 2023. Initial size is the firm’s employment in its first year. National, all sectors. All bars on one scale. U.S. Census Bureau, Business Dynamics Statistics, firm age by initial firm size (BDSFAGEIFSIZE), national, all sectors, file dated September 2025, retrieved October 16, 2026. Closure rate = firm deaths / (firms + firm deaths). > Firms that opened with one to four people still close more often a quarter century later. ## Twenty-six years later, the gap is still there An earlier piece here found that surviving 26 years cuts a business’s odds of closing a long way. Split by starting size, the cut is not the same for everyone. From age one to 26 and older, the closure rate fell 59% for firms that started with one to four employees and 69% for firms that started with five to nine, and the smaller starters had the smaller fall in every year from 2010 to 2023. At 26 and older the rate drops at every step of starting size: 9.7% for one to four, 4.1% for five to nine, 3.4% for 10 to 19, 2.5% for 20 to 99 and 1.3% for 100 to 499. That is 383,644 firms in the one-to-four group alone. The Data Share of firms 26 years or older that closed in 2023, by the size they started at 9.7%Started with1–44.1%Started with5–93.4%Started with10–192.5%Started with20–991.3%Started with100–499- Firm deaths as a share of firms plus firm deaths, year to March 2023. Firms with 500 or more employees at the start are suppressed at this age and are not shown. National, all sectors. U.S. Census Bureau, Business Dynamics Statistics, firm age by initial firm size (BDSFAGEIFSIZE), national, all sectors, file dated September 2025, retrieved October 16, 2026. Closure rate = firm deaths / (firms + firm deaths). ## Not one year’s quirk The gap at 26 and older is there in every year from 2010 to 2023. From 2014 to 2023 the rate for the one-to-four starters ran from 7.1% to 9.7%, and for the five-to-nine starters from 2.9% to 4.1%. The ranges never meet. In every year from 2015 to 2023, a firm 26 years or older that started with one to four employees closed more often than a four-year-old firm that started with five to nine. And for the smaller starters the rate flattens out after about 11 years: from 2015 to 2023, the age bands from 11–15 to 26+ sat within 1.2 points of each other in every year. The Data Share of firms 26 years or older that closed each year, by starting size 2014 Started with 1–47.1% Started with 5–92.9% 2015 Started with 1–47.3% Started with 5–93.1% 2016 Started with 1–47.3% Started with 5–93.1% 2017 Started with 1–47.5% Started with 5–93.1% 2018 Started with 1–47.8% Started with 5–93.3% 2019 Started with 1–48.1% Started with 5–93.4% 2020 Started with 1–48.4% Started with 5–93.6% 2021 Started with 1–49.7% Started with 5–93.6% 2022 Started with 1–48.9% Started with 5–93.8% 2023 Started with 1–49.7% Started with 5–94.1% Firm deaths as a share of firms plus firm deaths, each year to March. National, all sectors. All bars on one scale. U.S. Census Bureau, Business Dynamics Statistics, firm age by initial firm size (BDSFAGEIFSIZE), national, all sectors, file dated September 2025, retrieved October 16, 2026. Closure rate = firm deaths / (firms + firm deaths). ## What to take from this if you started small If your business opened with you and a couple of people, the national numbers say time alone does not buy the safety it seems to. The risk drops hard in the first years and then levels off, and it levels off higher than it does for firms that started with five to nine. That is worth knowing before you decide the business is past the dangerous part. The data do not say why, so do not read it as a verdict. Read it as a prompt: whatever a bigger start gives a firm, whether it is more money, more customers or more people who know how the work is done, ask which of those your business still runs short of, and build it on purpose. Four limits worth holding. The data cover **employer firms** only, so businesses with no employees are not in them. **Initial size** is the firm’s employment in its first year in the data, so firms founded before 1978 have no starting size and are left out. A **closure** means every location stopped having employees, so a business that was sold and kept running is not counted as closed. And the file shows **who** closed, **not why**: it does not show that starting bigger keeps a firm open, only that the firms that started bigger closed less often. The Data Where the numbers land 9.7% of firms 26+ years old that started with 1–4 employees closed in 2023 4.1% of firms 26+ years old that started with 5–9 employees closed in 2023 14 of 14 years from 2010 to 2023 in which 1–4 starters closed more often at every age 59.3% of firms operating in 2023 (founded 1978 or later) started with 1–4 employees U.S. Census Bureau, Business Dynamics Statistics, 2010–2023. ## Frequently Asked Questions Do businesses that start small close more often? Yes, at every age. In Census Business Dynamics Statistics, firms that started with one to four employees closed more often than firms that started with five to nine at every age, in every year from 2010 to 2023. Does the gap disappear once a business has been around for decades? No. Among firms 26 years or older in 2023, 9.7% of those that started with one to four employees closed, against 4.1% of those that started with five to nine. What does initial firm size mean? It is the number of employees a firm had in its first year. A firm that started with three people and later grew stays in the one-to-four group. Does starting with more employees keep a business open? The data do not show that. They show which firms closed, not why, so the gap could reflect money, customers or anything else that comes with a bigger start. Where does the data come from? The U.S. Census Bureau's Business Dynamics Statistics, the table of firm age by initial firm size, national figures for all sectors, 2010 to 2023. Keep reading [Surviving Twenty-Six Years Cuts Your Odds of Closing by 61%. In Health Care It Cuts Them by 35%.](https://lonelyentrepreneur.com/founder-what-surviving-buys-you/) - [At Firms With 1 to 4 Employees, Most Lost Jobs Go When a Workplace Closes. At Every Larger Size, Most Go by Shrinking.](https://lonelyentrepreneur.com/founder-room-to-shrink/) - [Half the Businesses That Closed Last Year Had Been Open Six Years or More](https://lonelyentrepreneur.com/founder-closures-by-business-age/) Part of the entrepreneurial struggle: [Resilience](https://lonelyentrepreneur.com/entrepreneur-struggle/resilience/) ![The Lonely Entrepreneur](https://lonelyentrepreneur.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/TLE_Logo_mobile-490W-26-26.png) Published by **The Lonely Entrepreneur** — the community and coaching platform for entrepreneurs who are building alone. [lonelyentrepreneur.com](https://lonelyentrepreneur.com/) This article is for educational purposes and is not a substitute for professional financial or legal advice.