--- url: 'https://lonelyentrepreneur.com/founder-resilience-when-demand-dips/' title: 'Resilience When Demand Dips: 24.4% of the Smallest Firms Saw Demand Fall in Two Weeks. 11.1% of the Largest' author: name: Samantha Lankford url: 'https://lonelyentrepreneur.com/author/sam/' date: '2026-11-07T10:30:00-05:00' modified: '2026-11-07T10:30:00-05:00' type: post summary: 'Census data: demand fell in a typical two weeks for 24.4% of firms with 1 to 4 employees and 11.1% at 250 or more. Six months out, the smallest are split.' categories: - Blog Post image: 'https://lonelyentrepreneur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/11/founder-resilience-when-demand-dips-hero.webp' published: true --- # Resilience When Demand Dips: 24.4% of the Smallest Firms Saw Demand Fall in Two Weeks. 11.1% of the Largest ![The Lonely Entrepreneur](https://lonelyentrepreneur.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/TLE_Logo_mobile-490W-26-26.png)Founder Data Report ![Resilience When Demand Dips: 24.4% of the Smallest Firms Saw Demand Fall in Two Weeks. 11.1% of the Largest](https://lonelyentrepreneur.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/11/founder-resilience-when-demand-dips-hero.webp) Founder Data Report # Resilience When Demand Dips: 24.4% of the Smallest Firms Saw Demand Fall in Two Weeks. 11.1% of the Largest By Michael Dermer • Updated November 7, 2026 You can’t afford to risk your business without a Sidekick at your side. [Book a Call →](https://lp.lonelyentrepreneur.com/meetings/victoria-sherman/sidekick-call) A slow fortnight is part of running a small business. The Census Bureau asks employers every two weeks whether demand went up, down or held, and the answer is down more often at small firms than at large ones. Quick Answer In the Census Bureau’s Business Trends and Outlook Survey, **24.4%** of employers with 1 to 4 employees said demand for their goods or services fell in the last two weeks, averaged over five survey rounds from August to October 2026. At firms with 250 or more employees it was **11.1%**. The smallest firms have reported a fall more often than the largest in all 78 rounds since September 2023. Resilience in a small business is not only about the big storm. It is also the quiet fortnight: fewer calls, a thinner order book, a week where the work you planned for does not arrive. How you carry that, and how you read it, is part of the job. The Census Bureau asks employers about it every two weeks, by size of business. Its numbers show how often a dip lands, how it compares with what happens to revenue, and what owners expect next. They do not show why demand moved for any one business. The 30-second version - Demand fell in the last two weeks for 24.4% of firms with 1 to 4 employees and 11.1% of firms with 250 or more, more than twice as often. - Firms with 1 to 4 and 5 to 9 employees are level. From there, every step up in size separates. - At every size, more firms said revenue fell than said demand fell: 31.5% against 24.4% at the smallest. - Six months out, the smallest firms are close to even: 19.5% expect demand up, 18.6% down. Firms with 250 or more lean clearly up. - The survey records direction only. It does not say how big a fall was, or why. ## How often demand falls, by size of business Across the seven size classes, the share saying demand fell runs from 24.9% at firms with 5 to 9 employees down to 11.1% at 250 or more. Firms with 1 to 4 employees, at 24.4%, are level with 5 to 9 once the survey’s margin of error is counted. From 5 to 9 upward, each larger class reports a fall less often than the one before it. At firms with up to 49 employees, more said demand fell than said it rose. At 50 to 99 the two answers are level, and at 100 or more, more said demand rose. At the smallest, 24.4% saw demand fall and 10.9% saw it rise; most, 64.8%, said it held. The Data Demand fell in the last two weeks, by employment size 1–4 employees24.4%5–9 employees24.9%10–19 employees23.2%20–49 employees20.7%50–99 employees17.7%100–249 employees13.3%250+ employees11.1% Share of employers in each size class answering ‘decreased’, average of five survey rounds. Bars on a 0 to 30% axis. Firms with 1 to 4 and 5 to 9 employees are level; each step from 5 to 9 upward separates. U.S. Census Bureau, Business Trends and Outlook Survey, by employment size: ‘In the last two weeks, how did demand for this business’s goods or services change?’ Average of five survey rounds, August 10–October 18, 2026. ## Revenue falls more often than demand does The survey asks the same two-week question about operating revenue. In every size class, more firms said revenue fell than said demand fell. At the smallest it was 31.5% against 24.4%, a gap of 7.1 points. At 250 or more it was 15.4% against 11.1%, a gap of 4.3. The printed share for revenue ran above the one for demand in every size class in all 78 rounds. The survey publishes the two answers separately, so it cannot say which firms gave which. What it does show is that a revenue dip is reported more often than a demand dip, at every size. It does not say what sits in the gap. For an owner, the useful habit is to look at both, what came in and what customers asked for, before deciding what to do. The Data Revenue fell against demand fell, last two weeks, by employment size Firms with 1 to 4 employees Revenue fell31.5% Demand fell24.4% Firms with 5 to 9 employees Revenue fell31.5% Demand fell24.9% Firms with 10 to 19 employees Revenue fell30.5% Demand fell23.2% Firms with 20 to 49 employees Revenue fell28.0% Demand fell20.7% Firms with 50 to 99 employees Revenue fell23.5% Demand fell17.7% Firms with 100 to 249 employees Revenue fell19.5% Demand fell13.3% Firms with 250 or more employees Revenue fell15.4% Demand fell11.1% Share of employers in each size class answering ‘decreased’ to each question, average of five survey rounds. Both bars on one scale, 0 to 40%. The survey publishes two shares, not how many firms gave both answers. U.S. Census Bureau, Business Trends and Outlook Survey, by employment size: the last-two-weeks questions on operating revenues and on demand. Average of five survey rounds, August 10–October 18, 2026. > In all 78 survey rounds since 2023, the smallest firms reported a fall in demand more often than the largest. ## What owners expect next Asked about demand six months from now, more owners expect a rise than a fall at every size. At firms with 250 or more, 31.2% expect demand up and 8.1% down. At the smallest it is close to even: 19.5% up and 18.6% down. The share expecting a rise is higher at each larger size class in this window. That near-even split at the smallest firms is not new. Across the 78 rounds, firms with 1 to 4 employees leaned up in 53, leaned down in 11 and were level in 14. Firms with 20 or more leaned up in every round. A six-month answer is a different question from a two-week one, so these are not set against the falls above. The Data Expect demand up against expect demand down, six months out, by employment size Firms with 1 to 4 employees Expect demand up19.5% Expect demand down18.6% Firms with 5 to 9 employees Expect demand up21.9% Expect demand down17.8% Firms with 10 to 19 employees Expect demand up23.0% Expect demand down16.6% Firms with 20 to 49 employees Expect demand up24.8% Expect demand down15.0% Firms with 50 to 99 employees Expect demand up28.2% Expect demand down12.5% Firms with 100 to 249 employees Expect demand up30.6% Expect demand down9.9% Firms with 250 or more employees Expect demand up31.2% Expect demand down8.1% Share of employers in each size class answering ‘increased’ and ‘decreased’, average of five survey rounds. Both bars on one scale, 0 to 40%. Most firms in every class expect no change. U.S. Census Bureau, Business Trends and Outlook Survey, by employment size: ‘Six months from now, how do you think demand for this business’s goods or services will have changed?’ Average of five survey rounds, August 10–October 18, 2026. ## What to take from this if you run one If you run a small business, expect the quiet fortnight: at the smallest firms it shows up for about one in four in a typical two weeks. Resilience here looks less like toughness and more like preparation: a cash cushion sized for a slow month, a short list of what you will do first when the phone goes quiet, and a habit of checking whether it is demand, revenue timing or something else before you react. It also helps to talk it through with someone who has run a business and seen a few slow patches, before the dip turns into a decision you make alone at night. A second view helps you tell a blip from a trend. Limits worth holding. The survey records **direction only**: a 1% dip and a 40% dip give the same answer. It publishes **separate shares**, not how many firms gave two answers together. The six-month answers are **expectations**, which the survey does not check against what later happens. And it **does not say why** demand moved. The Data Where the numbers land 24.4% of firms with 1 to 4 employees saw demand fall in the last two weeks 11.1% of firms with 250 or more employees said the same 7.1 pts more of the smallest firms said revenue fell than said demand fell 78 survey rounds since 2023, and the smallest reported a fall more often in all of them U.S. Census Bureau, Business Trends and Outlook Survey. ## Frequently Asked Questions How often do small businesses see demand fall? In the Census Bureau's survey, 24.4% of employers with 1 to 4 employees said demand fell in the last two weeks, averaged over five rounds from August to October 2026. At 250 or more employees, 11.1%. Do smaller firms see demand fall more often than larger ones? Yes. The smallest firms reported a fall more often than the largest in all 78 survey rounds since September 2023. Firms with 1 to 4 and 5 to 9 employees are level with each other. Is a revenue drop the same as a demand drop? Not in this survey. More firms report revenue falling than demand falling, at every size: 31.5% against 24.4% at the smallest. The survey does not show which firms gave which answer. What do small business owners expect for demand in six months? At firms with 1 to 4 employees, 19.5% expect demand to rise and 18.6% expect it to fall. At 250 or more, 31.2% and 8.1%. Where does the data come from? The U.S. Census Bureau's Business Trends and Outlook Survey, which asks employer businesses about the last two weeks and the next six months every two weeks. These figures average five rounds from August 10 to October 18, 2026. Keep reading - [More Small Firms Report Revenue Down Than Up. In All 74 Fortnights on Record.](https://lonelyentrepreneur.com/founder-revenue-by-company-size/) - [Resilience Measured in Weeks: In Late 2020, 34.6% of Small Employers Had Less Than a Month of Cash on Hand](https://lonelyentrepreneur.com/founder-resilience-in-weeks/) - [Resilience by Trade: Two Years In, 60.6% of Finance Firms Were Back or Barely Touched. At Hotels and Restaurants, 26.8%](https://lonelyentrepreneur.com/founder-resilience-back-to-normal-by-trade/) Part of the entrepreneurial struggle: [Resilience](https://lonelyentrepreneur.com/entrepreneur-struggle/resilience/) ![The Lonely Entrepreneur](https://lonelyentrepreneur.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/TLE_Logo_mobile-490W-26-26.png) Published by **The Lonely Entrepreneur** — the community and coaching platform for entrepreneurs who are building alone. [lonelyentrepreneur.com](https://lonelyentrepreneur.com/) This article is for educational purposes and is not a substitute for professional financial or legal advice.